Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Pre-FOMC Minutes Trade


Over the past few months I have begun trading economic events using triple leveraged gold mining ETF's. One such trade presents itself today.

The precedent here are the previous FOMC meeting and it's respective meeting minutes release (Fed meeting and statement on 9/17/2014 and the meeting minutes release on 10/8/2014)

Like most I believe the Fed will continue to tighten it's policy (be hawkish), this would cause precipitation in the price of gold and of course gold mining ETF's. The catch is that although the statement on 9/17 appeared hawkish, the minutes released on 10/8 appeared dovish and caused massive gold futures buying (followed by the subsequent sell off of gold assets for a bottom on Nov, 5th.  So you could call this a two week trade from today (11/19/2014 1:40PM)

I'm buying a triple leveraged inverse gold mining ETF (if gold drops, it will go up in value) but only 1/2 position pre-2:00pm. Should the meeting minutes be dovish (following the precedent from the last meeting) then gold will get bought up leaving my triple inverse ETF to drop significantly, which is the exact time I will double the position (at the end of day) at that point I will expect gold to sell off similar to the last FOMC meeting minutes release, bring the trade into profitable territory.

If the meeting minutes are hawkish, I expect gold to sell off and the inverse ETF to increase.

Best

Thursday, September 13, 2012

All Scientists' [who believe in evolution] Are Liars


This is a plane and simple fact. Notice how I single out scientist's in the title of this article, that's because out of almost every profession in the modern world, they should know better and as a group they are deceiving themselves.
I admire scientist's, I used to be one before I dove head first into the financial world, and thus am well aware of the vigorous training and studying it takes to understand the complex molecular interactions occurring millions of times per second, of every second, of every day that goes on in even the simplest of all living creatures, that is the cell.
I like science. And why wouldn't anybody? It's the relentless search for truth. Through testing and experimenting and testing and experimenting some more, scientist's seek to find answers, causes, solutions, and cures to many problems afflicting many people. This is why I do not understand why so many of them CHOOSE to believe a lie, that is evolution. The belief that in some freak random occurrence, the first living cell was accidentally thrown together by trillions of random happenings. Out of everybody, scientist's are trained and should be able to see past this non-sense and to seek the truth. A matter of fact the only explanation possible explaining this complete breakdown in moral fiber by an entire profession group is just a lack of courage. We are teaching our children a lie because we lack the courage as a society to stand up and say, “this crap doesn't make any sense!” and the people I blame most are scientist's. They should know better, they have the light, they know the truth and are just choosing to continue to believe a convenient lie. The sad part is, the more time that goes by, the more and more foolish those who are scientific will appear. Very soon, the amount of knowledge available to humans concerning this masterpiece of creation we call our bodies will be so vast, and the understanding of it so great, that those who aren't scientific will begin to question and yes, even make fun of the choice so many intelligent people have chosen to believe which is the theory of evolution. It reminds me of hearing about how many people chose to believe African-American people were some how less human not all that long ago. A belief that is now laughed at and if still believed by someones silly great-grandmother, eyes are rolled and pacifying phrases like, “oh grandma, you don't really believe that, right?” in an effort not to disrespect, but not condone those out of date and just plane foolish people... I mean ideas.
As an ex-scientist, please allow me to be the first to scream, “what is this 800 lb gorilla still doing here? Would someone please tell me. Oh, nothing? Then do away with it, and good riddance! Let's stop talking about evolution like it's a real science, let's stop teaching it to our children like it's a viable theory, and lets just accept the obvious truth. The truth science is actually proving based on it's own existence. That we are a masterpiece creation, formed through wisdom and understanding by someone with vast intelligence that loves us more then we could possibly comprehend.  

Monday, February 7, 2011

How to Prosper

How to Prosper Financially.

1. Give control of your life over to God. This is accomplished by saying a prayer, and choosing to believe that God heard you.
The prayer would sound like this..."Father, in the name of Jesus, I give control of my life over to you, what you say, I will say and where you go I will go. I ask you to come into my life and I confess that Jesus is the Son of God and Lord of my life. In the name of Jesus I pray, amen."

2. In order to prosper financially, your soul must prosper first. (3 John 1:2). Prosperity of your soul is accomplished by you controlling your soul. Your soul consists of your 1. Will 2. Mind 3. Emotions.
Learn to control what you think on (think on what the Bible tells you to think on (Philippians 4:8)), where you allow your emotions to go and by submitting your will to the will of God, your soul will be prospering.

3. Put the Kingdom of God first (Matthew 6:33). Instead of building your kingdom, your bank account, your house, always putting your stuff first, put the plan and works that God has told you to do, first place, a place of priority in your life.

4. Begin to sow. The law of planting and harvesting is paramount and must be used in order to prosper in God. This is accomplished in several ways, but the most prominent way this is done is by investing in the Gospel. When you give money into a ministry that is making progress in building the Kingdom of God, you become partnered with that ministry and part of the return for that investment comes on you. (Mark 4)

5. When this is accomplished, God is able to bless you abundantly and He will bless you abundantly because He loves you so much and it pleases Him to bless His children.

Books to learn more about this subject that I would highly recommend:





Thursday, January 14, 2010

Make Your Decisions

The decision to be wealthy and prosperous can be made right now. If your reading this text, chances are you are prosperous when compared to the poorest people in the word. Some people have absolutely nothing. No food, no shelter, no family; this is true poverty. when compared to your wealth, you are most likely infinitely more wealthy then the person who has nothing, yet so many people are unhappy with what they have and strive to get more stuff in order to be happy. I would hypothesize that people aren't really after nice cars, money and houses, if you dig deeper you can see people just want to be happy and they figure that if they obtain more physical possessions it will make them more happy. History tells us this is not true. There are many examples of people with great wealth who no matter what they accumulated or possessed, remained bitter and upset. These people have made a decision to remain discontent and unhappy. The poor can make the same decision but in the opposite direction. They can decide to be happy despite their lack.

Make a decision today to be content with what you have, this should help to increase your general happiness, which is in my opinion, the best measure of wealth.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Relative Risk

The definition of "risk" is - The possibility of suffering harm or loss; danger.

The relative perspective of investment risk is a subject of interest of mine. The abnormal way people consider risk can be explained by an example... If someone suggests taking a large (> 50% of your portfolio) position in a certain company, some people's automatic response is to imagine the worst possible outcome for that company, like "what if the CEO walks outside and gets hit by a bus?" or "what if one of their products is found to cause cancer?" etc. The possibility of one these highly improbable occurrences happening is near zero, so why do people seriously consider these possibilities as realistic? It's because risk is relative. But when it's taken into the perspective of reality, we can ignore the outlying data points and assume the norm will happen. At least thats what I do whenever I board an airplane.
A general rule I like to follow when considering the level of risk I'm exposing myself to is a saying by Warren Buffet. "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. " The more deeply you understand a situation, the less risk exists.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Building A Stock Investing Strategy

My friend Adrian over at Shareyournumber.com asked me to write a post on how to build a strategy to invest in stocks.

To check out the post and comment click here. Enjoy!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Letting The Winners Run

Fear is a dominant player in the markets. Stocks drop, people get scared, and the stock drops more because people are selling...because their scared. Good companies selling at depressed values make excellent opportunities, if you can ignore the fear.

The same applies to stocks increasing in value while you hold a position in it (always a good thing). As the shares increase in value, some people become more and more afraid, especially in these market conditions (April 16, 2009), the questions pass through the mind... is this a true rally, or is this stock about to slide back down, erasing all profits earned.

It is important to ignore fear in both examples. This is accomplished by committing to an entry price and exit price BEFORE taking on a stock position. Before entry, you are thinking clearly, unaffected by the bombardment of emotions as the share value fluctuates. The key to allowing your winners to run is to stay the course and allow the value to raise to the predetermined price...then sell.

A principle I recently acquired and have taken as my own is the 7% rule (found in Jack D. Schwagers' book "Market Wizards"). If you have a working theory about a stock, based on fundamentals and sound reason, take the position, but set a limit order to sell or cover after a 7% loss. This will keep you from losing your shirt on any one trade.