I left this comment on 7million7years.com and thought I might expound on it.
The term "market timing" reminds me of double dutch. With the jumper waiting on the outside of the ropes, waiting until they believe they have the rhythm of the ropes, and can predict them.
I tried this a few times in grade school and got whacked in the face.
This is the type of trading you don't want to participate in. It may turn out well a few times, but for the long term, you will inevitably lose money.
While double dutch is the sport I liken "market timing" to, consistent, successful investing is more like surfing. The surfer waits patiently for the perfect wave, there is no rhythm or signal to tell him the wave is coming, it just arrives (there is a rhythm to ocean waves, but to catch the perfect wave takes patience). He can either take advantage of it without hesitation, or let it pass him by.
When observing a market inefficiency, I know its time to invest, and the opportunity won't be around for long. This has nothing to do with "timing" and more to do with fundamentals and anticipating the emotions of the market.
Showing posts with label Bad Investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bad Investments. Show all posts
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Saturday, November 1, 2008
How to Determine the Market Bottom
This is an obvious question because if you can determine it correctly, just about any investment you make will be profitable.
The bottom is... when you think the economic world as we know it will end, very soon there will be no stock market and your prediction of the future economic structure of the United States is a hunter - gatherer society.
That is the bottom and it is now time to buy. This is based on the assumption that because you are experiencing this fear, everyone else is as well. During this time only the logical can stand back and notice everyone has lost their minds and the deals of the decade are being presented.
The individual who can pull the trigger at this point, manifests discipline and courage. Basically a complete absence of fear while maintaining faith that people will continue to be people and buy goods and services, hence lifting the economy, spurring optimism which only spurs more buying, turbocharging the profits of good companies as well as their shareholders.
Just be mindful of the flipside...when people are too greedy. This marks the top of the market and the perfect time to sell.
The bottom is... when you think the economic world as we know it will end, very soon there will be no stock market and your prediction of the future economic structure of the United States is a hunter - gatherer society.
That is the bottom and it is now time to buy. This is based on the assumption that because you are experiencing this fear, everyone else is as well. During this time only the logical can stand back and notice everyone has lost their minds and the deals of the decade are being presented.
The individual who can pull the trigger at this point, manifests discipline and courage. Basically a complete absence of fear while maintaining faith that people will continue to be people and buy goods and services, hence lifting the economy, spurring optimism which only spurs more buying, turbocharging the profits of good companies as well as their shareholders.
Just be mindful of the flipside...when people are too greedy. This marks the top of the market and the perfect time to sell.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The Lieing Annex
A couple months ago I attended The Learning Annex at Jacob Javits convention center in New York City. It was a complete waste of time. If you ever have the opportunity to attend one of these meetings I suggest reading this first.
When you arrive, you wait in line for about half an hour and they show you into the main auditorium. On the way in, their are girls dressed in skimpy clothing, lined up on both sides of you (kinda like cheerleaders while football players run onto the field) and their all screaming and yelling MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!
Basically this singing and screaming about money continues for about 45 minutes which is when I realized my day would have been better spent elsewhere.
Following this charade, people break up into different "classes". They immediately begin pitching you whatever product pertains to the "class" you selected to attend, this "class" is run by a salesman. The salesmen discussing these products were probably the best salesmen I have ever seen or heard, whatever they were paying these guys wasn't enough. As you sit there and listen, they slowly suck you into believing you need this product, and the only way you are going to achieve your financial goals is by BUYING their product. Buying is capitalized because the service, software or CD set their pitching you all cost around or over $1000. I would also like to point out that on The Learning Annex website they claim "learning" is what they are offering; the only thing they are offering is the opportunity to BUY.
The products discussed there could have value and I am not claiming they don't work. If you want to learn what is offered from these products, you can research them and determine if you want to make that initial investment from your home. The main reason I am writing this post is they claim they are going to teach you something, the truth is they are selling you something.
When you arrive, you wait in line for about half an hour and they show you into the main auditorium. On the way in, their are girls dressed in skimpy clothing, lined up on both sides of you (kinda like cheerleaders while football players run onto the field) and their all screaming and yelling MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!
Basically this singing and screaming about money continues for about 45 minutes which is when I realized my day would have been better spent elsewhere.
Following this charade, people break up into different "classes". They immediately begin pitching you whatever product pertains to the "class" you selected to attend, this "class" is run by a salesman. The salesmen discussing these products were probably the best salesmen I have ever seen or heard, whatever they were paying these guys wasn't enough. As you sit there and listen, they slowly suck you into believing you need this product, and the only way you are going to achieve your financial goals is by BUYING their product. Buying is capitalized because the service, software or CD set their pitching you all cost around or over $1000. I would also like to point out that on The Learning Annex website they claim "learning" is what they are offering; the only thing they are offering is the opportunity to BUY.
The products discussed there could have value and I am not claiming they don't work. If you want to learn what is offered from these products, you can research them and determine if you want to make that initial investment from your home. The main reason I am writing this post is they claim they are going to teach you something, the truth is they are selling you something.
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