Market Timing

I left this comment on 7million7years.com and thought I might expound on it.

The term "market timing" reminds me of double dutch. With the jumper waiting on the outside of the ropes, waiting until they believe they have the rhythm of the ropes, and can predict them.
I tried this a few times in grade school and got whacked in the face.

This is the type of trading you don't want to participate in. It may turn out well a few times, but for the long term, you will inevitably lose money.

While double dutch is the sport I liken "market timing" to, consistent, successful investing is more like surfing. The surfer waits patiently for the perfect wave, there is no rhythm or signal to tell him the wave is coming, it just arrives (there is a rhythm to ocean waves, but to catch the perfect wave takes patience). He can either take advantage of it without hesitation, or let it pass him by.
When observing a market inefficiency, I know its time to invest, and the opportunity won't be around for long. This has nothing to do with "timing" and more to do with fundamentals and anticipating the emotions of the market.

Trading and Black Jack

If you've ever played Black Jack, you know what the term "double down" means. This option is available for every hand you play, but should only be taken advantage of when the odds are in your favor. To utilize this option, you tell the dealer, "I would like to double down". At this point you would put the maximum amount of chips next to your original bet, which can be up to 100% of your original bet, the dealer would then give you one more card, and one more card only.

If you could apply the rules of the New York Stock Exchange to Black Jack, you would be able to see your hand and the dealers hand before you ever had to bet anything, and if the odds were in your favor, you could wager all your money, and even borrow up to your chip count from the casino!

Good practice for investing in stocks, much like Black Jack, is to wait for the most opportune time (when the odds are in your favor) and get as much of your money in as you can! Unfortunately at the casino, you have to bet a least the table minimum (the minimum amount of money you can bet per hand) just to see your cards, then evaluate if the odds are in your favor and whether this hand is qualified for the "double down" option.
The great thing about investing in stock, is you get to see the "cards" (company accounting records, conference calls, price to earnings) before you ever commit any cash. You determine if the odds are in your favor and how much of your bank role you think this opportunity demands.

The tough part is determining when the best risk to reward ratio is in place for that hand....... I mean investment.

Discipline Is Imperative

Discipline is the characteristic needed to:

• push yourself past the point most others stop at
• Resist the urge to spend more then you should
• Pull second shift working on your part time business after getting home from your day job
• See the potential in that stock, ignoring the fear
• Continue to learn, grow and risk

...succeed in whatever you want to succeed in.

I'll leave you with some motivational quotes.

"Discipline is choosing between what you want now and what you want the most."
"Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments."

How to Determine the Market Bottom

This is an obvious question because if you can determine it correctly, just about any investment you make will be profitable.

The bottom is... when you think the economic world as we know it will end, very soon there will be no stock market and your prediction of the future economic structure of the United States is a hunter - gatherer society.
That is the bottom and it is now time to buy. This is based on the assumption that because you are experiencing this fear, everyone else is as well. During this time only the logical can stand back and notice everyone has lost their minds and the deals of the decade are being presented.

The individual who can pull the trigger at this point, manifests discipline and courage. Basically a complete absence of fear while maintaining faith that people will continue to be people and buy goods and services, hence lifting the economy, spurring optimism which only spurs more buying, turbocharging the profits of good companies as well as their shareholders.

Just be mindful of the flipside...when people are too greedy. This marks the top of the market and the perfect time to sell.

Motivate Yourself To Make Money Part 2

This is the second part of an X-part post (I'm gonna just keep posting on this subject as I come up with ideas) which focuses on becoming motivated from the inside, because most likely you don't have a personal motivation coach just waiting in the wings to cheer you on when you don't feel like pushing forward.
My tip for this month is to constantly tell yourself, "my time is valuable" whether you think it's true or not. Would someone who's time is valuable watch television, stumble aimlessly online, or socialize to much? The answer is obviously, no.
I also find this statement empowering and enlightening in a plethora of situations. So try it the next time you find yourself evading a task you need to accomplish.

How To Motivate Yourself To Make Money

This is something I struggle with often. Motivation is the fuel needed to launch those projects and ideas you have that need sweat equity before any profits come out on the other end. Usually the source for long term motivation is clear (i.e., infinite freedom, time with family, etc), but what about short term motivation. What is going to put the fire under your ass when all you want to do is sit on the couch and watch a night of T.V. pass you by (while you should be working on your business for example).

I believe I have a solution: DEBT

For someone who has strong, basic financial principals down (saving, no consumer debt, etc) debt can be an excellent motivating factor for making money.

If I can't pay my bills one month, and I have to carry over a balance on my credit card (after paying the minimum), or I'm carrying a balance on my checking plus account with my bank, these facts role around in my head all the time, 24 hours a day, I'm even dreaming about where I'm going to get the money to pay for these expenses. This acts as a fuel to think of new ways of coming into some money. Now that extra "motivation" pushes me into coming up with new ideas, working on previously abandoned projects and forces me to put down the remote control, and find new/old ways to make some cash.

As for how to get into debt, there IS a certain way to do this: Instead of paying off all your monthly expenses, let the non-urgent expenses wait, and deposit those extra funds into some sort of investment vehicle. I believe this strategy is also called "paying yourself first".

What strategies do you use to motivate yourself?

Negotiate With Patience

As I learn more and more about making money, I see several patterns which seem to emulate over and over. One of them is the importance of buying low and selling high (obviously). And in order to do this effectively, having patience on hand will always give you the edge needed to buy low, thus giving you the ability to sell higher.
An example of this could be buying a used car. If you have the luxury of time and the ability to use patience, a quality used vehicle can be purchased for significantly less then if you were in a rush and needed to buy immediately.
Another example could be the purchase of stock, and using a limit order instead of a market order. Using limit orders effectively allows you to negotiate the stock price instead of simply purchasing whatever is for sale at that moment, although a little patience may be needed.
So if you happen to be in the market for a car, or shares of XYZ, don't only exercise good judgement, but also take a moment to exercise patience.