Thursday, February 19, 2009

Market Timing

I left this comment on 7million7years.com and thought I might expound on it.

The term "market timing" reminds me of double dutch. With the jumper waiting on the outside of the ropes, waiting until they believe they have the rhythm of the ropes, and can predict them.
I tried this a few times in grade school and got whacked in the face.


This is the type of trading you don't want to participate in. It may turn out well a few times, but for the long term, you will inevitably lose money.

While double dutch is the sport I liken "market timing" to, consistent, successful investing is more like surfing. The surfer waits patiently for the perfect wave, there is no rhythm or signal to tell him the wave is coming, it just arrives (there is a rhythm to ocean waves, but to catch the perfect wave takes patience). He can either take advantage of it without hesitation, or let it pass him by.
When observing a market inefficiency, I know its time to invest, and the opportunity won't be around for long. This has nothing to do with "timing" and more to do with fundamentals and anticipating the emotions of the market.

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